Will Trump Be Impeached?
By Sean Evans, Chair and Professor of Political Science
May 24, 2017 -
With the recent firing of FBI Director James Comey over the Russia investigation and reports that Trump asked Comey to drop the Michael Flynn investigation, some Democrats are calling for Trump鈥檚 impeachment. However, calls for impeachment are premature until a credible investigation finds Trump broke the law.
A credible investigation, whether by Special Counsel Robert Mueller or a Congressional committee, must collect all available information, weigh the evidence appropriately, and then reach a conclusion. Right now, our 24 hour news cycles dribble out information little by little but demands instant analysis which tends to fit partisan narratives that can be easily contradicted by new information. Yet special counsels and Congressional committees have the legal tools necessary to gather information and draw logical conclusions if we have the patience to allow the process to unfold.
A credible investigation is important because polls show that Americans鈥� trust in Congress, the presidency, courts, and the press is very low. This low trust is important because Americans鈥� distrust of elites undermine the political system鈥檚 legitimacy and impeachment compounds this problem by overturning the results of a popular election. Trump supporters believe political and media elites look down on them and are trying to delegitimize a duly elected president that they always opposed. Moreover, attempting to remove a president elected less than eight months ago confirms their worst instincts and undermines their support of the political system. Progressives, meanwhile, believe Trump is unfit to be president and automatically believe the worst about Trump.
Yet, the results of these investigations will potentially upset one of these groups so only a credible investigation can help those upset to accept the outcome. This requires Democrats to apply pressure on Republicans without the hyperbole of calling every Trump action authoritarian or a constitutional crisis because our polarized politics automatically lead partisans to rally to support their guy if they feel he is being unfairly maligned.
Moreover, the Congress need to find the modern day equivalents of Senators Sam Ervin and Howard Baker of the Watergate Committee who can develop the confidence of Washington and the nation to conduct a thorough and bipartisan investigation. This bipartisanship is important because impeachment requires a two-third majority in the Senate to convict which means Senate Republicans must have clear and convincing evidence of Trump鈥檚 illegal activity.
Finally, impeachment is a constitutional process that requires the House to prove Trump committed 鈥渢reason, bribery, and high crimes and misdemeanors.鈥� Trump鈥檚 violating of democratic norms, whether brazen attacks on judges, opponents, and the press or unfounded tweets about his predecessor, are wrong and irresponsible and should stop. However, they are not illegal. Neither are Trump鈥檚 poor temperament, low character, and incompetence, even though they are very problematic.
Instead, accusations must meet legal standards. Many Democrats point to Trump鈥檚 interactions with Comey to support charges of obstruction of justice. However, this charge requires prosecutors to prove corrupt intent which is difficult. Trump firing Comey over the Russia investigation could reflect outrage over continued investigations of the innocent. Trump asking Comey to 鈥渓et this [Flynn investigation] go鈥� may be Trump鈥檚 way of protecting a loyal aide and 鈥済ood guy鈥� who has suffered enough with a damaged reputation. Or his lack of political experience may mean Trump doesn鈥檛 really know what he is doing. The only way to find out though is through a credible investigation.
This column originally appeared in the May 21st edition of The Jackson Sun