麻豆视频

With eighteen days left until the elections, what can we expect to see as the campaigns race to the finish line?

                First, the Republicans will nationalize the elections. Whether a Republican runs for governor, congress, state legislature, or dog catcher, s/he will run against Obama-Pelosi instead of their actual opponent. Since there is so much anger over the economy, TARP, the stimulus, and health care, Republicans will attempt to channel that anger into opposition to Democrats at all levels.

                Second, Democrats will respond by attacking their opponent and distancing themselves from President Obama and Speaker Pelosi. Realizing the unpopularity of their party’s leaders, Democrats will attack their opponents with everything they have to make the election about the candidates themselves instead of Democrat versus Republican. If Democrats can demonize their opponents by attacking their character, qualifications, or ideological extremism, they can energize their depressed base and cause Tennesseans to pause before voting Republican. On the positive side, they will emphasize their independence, ability to deliver, and identity with everyday Tennesseans.  

                Third, the races will tighten as Democrats rally to their party. However, it will probably not be enough to help enough Democrats. In wave elections when there is intense dissatisfaction with the current Administration, the public makes a retrospective evaluation of the incumbent party and punishes them. This happened in 2006 and 2008 to Republicans and is likely to happen to Democrats this year. 

                Fourth, the attacks and negative ads will run from now until Election Day. Traditionally, campaigns run their best attacks ads 5 days before the election because the opponent does not have enough time to respond. However since 54% of Tennesseans participated in early voting for the primary, campaigns must launch their attacks now. Since early voting started two days ago, the ads are on their way.

                Fifth, parties and campaigns are focusing on getting out the vote. The ads are one means of doing this. Yet, the primary means of mobilizing voters is door-to-door canvassing and phone calls. Both parties have sophisticated means of identifying your voting preferences and concerns. They will begin to target supporters with targeted messages to get you to vote. For undecided voters, they will be more careful about assessing your voting intentions to make sure they do not mobilize someone who will not support them.

                Sixth, the Democrats have started triage on their candidates. The Democrats have limited resources and will begin to remove resources from Democrats who can’t win. Democrats have already conceded the governor’s mansion and now the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has dropped ad buys for Roy Herron because he trails Stephen Fincher too much in internal polls. With Tennessee Democrats now directing all of their resources on retaking the State House, Republicans can expand the playing field and spend more resources on vulnerable Democrats like Lowe Finney and to a lesser extent Johnny Shaw.

                So now you know what to expect. So go vote and then sit back on November 2 and watch the election returns and see democracy in action.